Staying below 1.5°C is now very unlikely, and even with the best efforts, we are headed toward as much as 3°C of climate change. That shift is reshaping or will reshape every balance sheet, household, and supply chain. From billion-dollar disasters to wildfire smoke darkening city skies, the costs of a warming world are here.

Adaptation and Resilience (A&R) isn’t a side story in climate tech anymore. Governments, insurers, and corporations are now actively buying resilience because the ROI is real: resilient infrastructure pays thirteen to one over a decade. Yet only around 3% of climate venture funding goes to A&R-only startups, and just 12% to companies bridging mitigation and adaptation. We are desperately underprepared for the future, and the time to act is not after everyone already knows what is coming. It will be too late then.

Why Now?

Three big shifts make this the moment for resilience tech:

1. Insurance and risk signals are forcing new spending. Premiums, exclusions, and risk repricing are driving upgrades that reduce exposure.
2. Policy tailwinds are real. From new building codes to disaster recovery mandates, governments are writing resilience into budgets across the political spectrum.
3. Data and AI have made physical risk measurable and therefore financeable. Sensing, modeling, and analytics are turning climate chaos into actionable insight.
4. The cost of inaction is increasingly obvious with a new billion-dollar disaster striking about every three weeks.

That combination is catalyzing a new wave of startups and investors across the resilience stack.

Where the Market Is Going

McKinsey projects $600B–$1T in global market potential for A&R tech by 2030. The opportunity spans every corner of the economy: wildfire and flood management, resilient agriculture and food systems, cooling and cold chain, resilient infrastructure, and the financial tools to price and transfer risk.

Early Leaders and Emerging Builders

Here’s a snapshot of where the action is:

Wildfire & Risk Analytics

• Pano: AI-driven wildfire detection, now used by many utilities and agencies.
• BurnBot: robotics for wildfire fuel management, tackling the field labor and safety bottleneck.
• Technosylva: simulation and modeling software used by utilities to plan and respond in real time.

Monitoring & Data Infrastructure

• Planet Labs: global satellite coverage that underpins risk modeling and response.

Coastal & Water Resilience

• Kind Designs: “living seawalls” that blend biodiverse natural restoration with coastal protection.
• Floodbase: understanding unpriced flood risk.

Resilient Ag & Natural Systems

• Basecamp Research: using nature’s data to design resilient bio-based materials and ag solutions.

Thermal & Built Environment

• Blue Frontier and Rebound Technologies: next-gen cooling and thermal storage that protect supply chains and grids while cutting emissions.

How We’re Thinking About It

We invest in companies that make quantifiable risk reduction measurable and valuable. That often means:

• Hard-tech where regulation or insurance already forces adoption.
• Products that serve mandated buyers such as utilities, insurers, governments, and enterprises.
• Data platforms and AI models that connect physical risk with financial outcomes.

A Call to Builders and Backers

As the legendary sustainable investor Jay Koh put it, this is an “Unavoidable Opportunity.” Trillions will be spent adapting to climate impacts in the coming decades. The real question is whether that capital compounds resilience and delivers strong returns for people and the planet.

If you’re building hard-tech or hardware-led software in adaptation and resilience, or investing alongside this thesis, let’s connect.

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References

1. “Preparing for climate-related catastrophes beats focusing on recovery alone” from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is not always the most climate-forward organization.
2. “Climate resilience technology: An inflection point for new investment” by McKinsey Sustainability.

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